The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are set to clash at Wrigley Field on Sunday, July 20, 2025, in a highly anticipated MLB matchup. The Red Sox, currently third in the AL East with a 53-47 record, will send left-hander Garrett Crochet to the mound. The Cubs, leading the NL Central at 59-39, will counter with rookie righty Cade Horton. This game promises to be a pivotal contest for both teams as they vie for playoff positioning.
Game Overview
Date: Sunday, July 20, 2025
Time: 2:20 PM ET (9:15 AM AEST)
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
TV: NESN
Pitching Matchup
The pitching duel features Boston’s Garrett Crochet against Chicago’s Cade Horton. Crochet has been a standout performer for the Red Sox, boasting a 10-4 record with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 129.1 innings. His recent form is particularly impressive, with a 5-0 record, 2.66 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP in his last seven starts. Crochet’s diverse five-pitch arsenal, especially his sweeper, has proven highly effective, limiting opposing hitters to a .117 batting average.
Cade Horton, on the other hand, has had a more challenging season, holding a 3-3 record with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 56.2 innings. His Baseball Savant page indicates struggles with barrel percentage and strikeout rate. This will be Horton’s first career start against the Red Sox.
Offensive Powerhouses
Both teams feature potent offenses. The Red Sox rank fifth in the majors with a .757 team OPS, averaging 4.97 runs per game. They are also aggressive on the bases, ranking sixth in MLB with 85 stolen bases. Ceddanne Rafaela has been a key contributor with a .793 OPS, 14 home runs, 48 RBI, and 13 stolen bases. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu also add significant power to the lineup.
The Cubs’ offense is equally formidable, ranking fourth in the league with a .770 team OPS and scoring 5.32 runs per game. They are third in MLB with 143 total home runs. Kyle Tucker has been exceptional, with a .279/.384/.496 slash line, 17 homers, 56 RBI, and 22 stolen bases. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki also provide substantial power and run production.
Betting Insights
Moneyline: Red Sox -135, Cubs +122
Total Runs: 7.5 (Over -100, Under -120)
Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+129), Cubs +1.5 (-155)
Despite the Cubs’ recent dominance in the series, winning the first two games, the Red Sox are favored due to Crochet’s strong pitching. The total runs line is set at 7.5, with trends suggesting an under. The Red Sox have a 7-3-0 record against the spread in their last 10 games, while the Cubs have won six of their last 10 against the spread.
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox:
Hunter Dobbins (Knee)
Nick Burdi (Knee)
Liam Hendriks (Hip)
Zack Kelly (Oblique)
Luis Guerrero (Elbow)
Justin Slaten (Shoulder)
Josh Winckowski (Elbow)
Triston Casas (Knee)
Kutter Crawford (Knee)
Tanner Houck (Flexor)
Patrick Sandoval (Elbow)
Chicago Cubs:
Porter Hodge (Shoulder)
Jameson Taillon (Calf)
Miguel Amaya (Oblique)
Eli Morgan (Elbow)
Javier Assad (Oblique)
Justin Steele (Elbow)
Prediction
Given Garrett Crochet’s dominant form and the Red Sox’s strong offensive metrics, Boston is poised for a competitive outing. However, the Cubs’ home advantage at Wrigley Field and their recent series wins cannot be overlooked. The game is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with the Cubs potentially winning the third time.
My personal Bet: UNDER 7.5
Sources
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction and Picks for July 20 2025, StatSalt.
Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction and MLB Tips, Stats Insider.
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