Sunday Showdown: Critical Game in the Playoff Race
The Chicago Cubs (81-61) are one win away from taking the series as they face the Washington Nationals (57-84) in Sunday’s rubber match at 2:20 p.m. ET. With playoff implications on the line, this is exactly the kind of game we need to win to keep pace in what’s shaping up to be a wild September.
Drew Pomeranz takes the ball for us against Washington’s Andrew Alvarez, and frankly, we should handle business against a Nationals team that’s already looking toward 2026.
Cubs Favored in Must-Win Situation
The betting market reflects what Cubs fans already know – we’re the better team:
Cubs -194 favorites
Nationals +161 underdogs
Run line: Cubs -1.5
Total: 8.5 runs
At 18-4 when favored by -194 or better this season, we’ve taken care of business against inferior opponents. That 81.8% winning percentage in these spots gives me confidence heading into Sunday.
Cubs Offense: Clicking at the Right Time
Power Display All Season Long
Our offense has been one of the pleasant surprises of 2025. Ranking 7th in MLB with 4.9 runs per game, we’ve consistently put pressure on opposing pitching staffs. The power numbers tell an even better story:
193 home runs (8th in MLB)
.249 team batting average (14th in MLB)
7.7 strikeouts per game (4th best contact rate)
That contact rate has been huge for us – we’re not just swinging for the fences, we’re working counts and putting the ball in play.
Key Cubs Hitters Leading the Charge
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been our home run leader with 28 bombs and 85 RBI. The young outfielder is slugging .496 and becoming a cornerstone of our future. He’s listed as day-to-day with a knee issue, but we need him in the lineup for this playoff push.
Nico Hoerner continues to be our most consistent bat at .290, providing the steady presence we need at the top of the order.
Kyle Tucker (.270, 22 HR, 73 RBI) has been everything we hoped for when we acquired him, though he’s dealing with a minor calf issue that has him day-to-day.
Seiya Suzuki leads the team with 89 RBI despite a .244 average, proving clutch hitting matters more than raw numbers.
Pitching: Drew Pomeranz Gets the Ball
Pomeranz makes just his fourth start of the season, but he’s been outstanding when given the opportunity. His 2.40 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 41⅓ innings show he’s ready for this moment. This could be a spot start that pays huge dividends down the stretch.
Our pitching staff overall has been solid:
3.87 team ERA (9th in MLB)
7.8 K/9 (needs improvement, but manageable)
What We’re Facing in Washington
The Nationals are essentially playing out the string at 57-84. They’ve been underdogs in 122 games this season, winning just 41.8% of those contests. More telling – they’re 7-25 when getting odds of +161 or longer.
Andrew Alvarez makes just his second start of the season for Washington, which tells you everything about where their rotation stands.
Nationals’ Offensive Threats
James Wood leads their team with 27 homers and 86 RBI – he’s a legitimate talent we’ll need to pitch carefully to.
C.J. Abrams (.265) and Luis Garcia (.260) provide some pop in their lineup, but overall they rank 24th in scoring at just 4.2 runs per game.
Their 5.30 team ERA (29th in MLB) shows why they’re playing spoiler rather than competing for anything meaningful.
Injury Concerns for Both Sides
We’re dealing with some key injuries that could impact our playoff chances:
Kyle Tucker (calf) – day-to-day
Pete Crow-Armstrong (knee) – day-to-day
Justin Steele (elbow) – 60-day IL
Miguel Amaya (ankle) – 10-day IL
The good news? Tucker and PCA being day-to-day suggests they could return soon. We need both healthy for October.
Washington is missing Keibert Ruiz (concussion protocol) and has several pitchers on the 60-day IL, but their season’s already over.
September Baseball: Every Game Matters
This is where championship teams separate themselves. We’re 65-38 when favored this season (63.1% winning percentage), and these are the games that determine whether we’re playing meaningful baseball in October or watching from home.
The Cubs have gone over the total in 65 of 142 opportunities this season, while Washington’s hit the over in 69 of 140 games. With both offenses capable of putting up runs and questionable bullpens, this could be a higher-scoring affair than the 8.5 total suggests.
The Bottom Line: Time to Take Care of Business
We’re the better team in every phase of the game. Pomeranz has been excellent in limited opportunities, our offense is clicking, and we’re facing a team that’s already mentally checked out.
These are the games championship teams win convincingly. With the playoff race heating up, we can’t afford to let inferior teams hang around.
My Prediction: Cubs 6, Nationals 4 (Over 8.5 runs)
Go Cubs Go!!!
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