The Chicago Cubs (83-63) welcome the Tampa Bay Rays (72-74) to Wrigley Field Friday afternoon in what should be a perfect setup for our playoff push. At 20 games over .500, we’re in prime position to make noise in October, while the Rays are essentially playing out the string at this point.
Game Details and Viewing Information
When: Friday, September 12, 2025 at 2:20 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago
TV: MLB Network, Marquee Sports Network (MARQ), and Fox Sports Sun (FDSSUN)
Betting Lines Show Cubs Respect
The sportsbooks clearly favor the home team:
Cubs Moneyline: -171
Rays Moneyline: +143
Run Line: Cubs -1.5
Total Runs: 7.5
Getting -171 odds at home reflects the market’s confidence in our playoff-bound squad. Those numbers tell the story – we’re playing for something meaningful while Tampa Bay is just trying to finish respectably.
Pitching Matchup: Boyd’s Brilliance vs. Baz’s Struggles
Cubs: Matthew Boyd (12-8, 2.92 ERA) makes his 29th start with 145 strikeouts in 166⅓ innings
Rays: Shane Baz (9-11) takes the mound for his 29th start
This matchup heavily favors us, and it’s not even close. Boyd has been a revelation this season with that sparkling 2.92 ERA, giving us exactly the kind of reliable veteran presence we need for a playoff run. His ability to eat innings while missing bats (145 strikeouts) makes him invaluable down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Baz’s 9-11 record tells the story of a pitcher who’s struggled with consistency all year. Facing our patient, disciplined lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with just 7.8 strikeouts per game? That’s a recipe for a long afternoon for the Tampa Bay righty.
Cubs Offense: Playoff-Caliber Balance
Our lineup has been clicking on all cylinders lately, ranking 8th in MLB with 4.9 runs per game and showing the kind of depth that championship teams possess. This isn’t a one or two-man show – we can hurt you from top to bottom.
Our Weapons:
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Team leader with 28 home runs, providing that spark at the top of the order
Nico Hoerner: Our steady veteran hitting .294 and setting the table consistently
Seiya Suzuki: RBI machine with 91 driven in and clutch gene when it matters
Ian Happ: Patient approach with .338 OBP and 121 hits, making pitchers work
What makes this lineup special is our approach. We rank 15th in batting average at .248, but we make contact when it counts and work deep into counts. That’s exactly the formula you need against struggling pitching like Baz.
Rays: Playing with Nothing to Lose
Tampa Bay brings some individual talent, led by Junior Caminero’s monster season (42 HRs, 106 RBIs) and Yandy Diaz’s consistent .292 batting average. But here’s the thing – those are nice individual numbers on a team that’s going nowhere fast.
The most intriguing storyline is Chandler Simpson’s recent hot streak, coming off a four-hit performance that has everyone talking. But one game doesn’t make a season, and we’ve seen plenty of players get hot in September only to cool off quickly.
Afternoon Baseball at Wrigley: Home Sweet Home
There’s nothing like afternoon baseball at the Friendly Confines, especially in September when playoff atmosphere starts building. The wind patterns, the crowd energy, the familiarity with every nook and cranny of our ballpark – all of that works in our favor.
We’re 24-10 this season when favored at -171 or shorter odds (70.6% win rate), which shows we handle expectations well and take care of business against inferior opponents.
Playoff Implications and Team Motivation
This is where the real difference shows. We’re fighting for playoff positioning and home field advantage, building chemistry and momentum for what we hope is a deep October run. Every game matters when you’re trying to peak at the right time.
The Rays? They’re 72-74 and essentially playing exhibition games. Sure, they want to finish strong, but there’s no real urgency or desperation driving them. That matters in September baseball.
Boyd’s September Excellence
Matthew Boyd has been everything we could have hoped for when we signed him. That 2.92 ERA isn’t a fluke – it’s the result of a veteran pitcher who knows how to sequence hitters and attack weaknesses. Against a Rays lineup that’s been inconsistent all year, Boyd should dominate.
The fact that we’re getting this kind of production from our rotation gives us legitimate confidence heading into the postseason. You need reliable starters to make deep runs, and Boyd has proven he can handle pressure.
Historical Context and Trends
Our track record as favorites speaks volumes – 66-40 when favored this season (62.3% win rate). We don’t take games off or assume anything, which is exactly the mentality you want from a playoff team.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is just 29-41 as underdogs (41.4%), and only 3-7 when getting +143 or longer odds. Those numbers suggest a team that struggles when expectations are low and motivation is questionable.
Keys to Victory at Wrigley
Boyd stays aggressive in the strike zone – Don’t let their hitters get comfortable
Jump on Baz early – His struggles suggest he’s vulnerable in the first few innings
Crow-Armstrong sets the tone – Our leadoff man needs to create havoc from the start
Work deep counts – Make Baz throw strikes and get into their bullpen
Final Prediction from Wrigleyville
This feels like the type of game where everything aligns for the Cubs. We’ve got the superior pitcher, the better lineup, home field advantage, and something meaningful to play for. Boyd should cruise through six or seven innings while our offense does what it’s done all year.
Sometimes baseball is straightforward, and this is one of those times. The better team with more motivation playing at home against a .500 club that’s checked out? That’s a formula for success.
Predicted Final: Cubs 8, Rays 3
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 run line
Value Play: Over 7.5 runs
Player Prop: Boyd to get the win
It’s September, the playoff race is heating up, and Wrigley Field will be buzzing with anticipation. This is exactly the kind of game where championship teams separate themselves from the pack.
Go Cubs Go! Let’s take care of business and keep building toward October.
The post Cubs vs. Rays Game Prediction Today September 12 appeared first on UrbanMatter.
