The NLDS has delivered everything we hoped for and more. After the Brewers crushed us in Games 1 and 2 at American Family Field, we returned the favor at Wrigley with two straight wins to force a decisive Game 5. Now we head back to Milwaukee with everything on the line – a trip to face the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Game Information
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET / 7:08 p.m. CT
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
TV Coverage: TBS
Season Records: Cubs 92-70 | Brewers 97-65
Series Record: Tied 2-2
Betting Lines and Odds
Moneyline:
Cubs: +108
Brewers: -132
Run Line:
Cubs +1.5 (-207)
Brewers -1.5 (+168)
Total: 7.5 runs (Over -108 / Under -113)
Starting Pitchers: TBD
As of Friday afternoon, neither team has announced their Game 5 starter. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation where traditional rotation order goes out the window. Expect both managers to have quick hooks and deploy their best arms when needed.
Home Field Advantage Has Been Dominant
The most telling stat of this series: every game has been won by the home team. The Brewers took both games in Milwaukee to start, then we responded with two wins at Wrigley. Now we’re back where it all began.
The numbers back up this trend:
Brewers at home: 52-29 regular season
Cubs on the road: 42-39 regular season
That 10-game difference in home/road records tells you everything about this matchup. Milwaukee thrives in their ballpark, while we’ve been more Jekyll and Hyde away from Wrigley.
Bullpen Usage Could Decide Everything
Here’s where things get concerning for us Cubs fans. We leaned heavily on our relievers in Games 3 and 4:
Cubs Bullpen Concerns:
Brad Keller: 34 pitches in recent appearances
Drew Pomeranz: 30 pitches in recent work
Both guys will have had Friday off to recover, but those high pitch counts in must-win games could catch up with us.
Brewers’ Fresher Arms:
Abner Uribe: hasn’t pitched since Monday
Jared Koenig: just 7 pitches since Monday
Trevor Megill: 12 pitches on Thursday
The Brewers essentially punted Games 3 and 4, resting their top relievers for this exact scenario. That’s smart playoff management, even if it hurt in the moment.
Jackson Chourio: The X-Factor
The 20-year-old phenom has been unconscious this series. Chourio is hitting .467 (7-for-15) with an .800 slugging percentage, including one homer and two doubles. He ended the regular season hot too, collecting three hits including a homer and double in his final two games.
Batting second in Milwaukee’s lineup, he’s positioned perfectly to do damage. Whether he’s driving in the leadoff hitter or being driven in by the middle of the order, Chourio has been clutch when it matters most.
Best Prop Bet: Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-133)
May Matchup Doesn’t Matter
Yes, we took two of three in Milwaukee back in May. But that was six months and a completely different season ago. The Brewers have won four of the last five meetings at American Family Field, including these two playoff games.
Playoff baseball is its own beast, and regular season matchups become irrelevant when everything’s on the line.
Cubs’ Path to Victory
For us to pull off this road win, we need:
Early runs – Get to their starter before they settle in
Manage the bullpen carefully – Can’t burn everyone in the first six innings
Clutch hitting with RISP – We’ve left too many runners stranded this series
Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ – Our leaders need to show up
The Harsh Reality
I want to believe we can do this. The momentum from two straight wins at Wrigley should carry over, right? Our offense finally woke up, and the pitching held when it mattered.
But the numbers don’t lie. Home field has been everything in this series, and the Brewers’ bullpen is fresher. Their crowd will be electric, and they have that young, fearless energy with guys like Chourio playing loose.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
This breaks my heart to write, but Milwaukee’s home field advantage and fresher bullpen prove to be the difference. We’ll make it competitive – probably even have a chance late – but they’ll find a way to hold on.
The Brewers’ ability to rest key relievers while we burned ours in Games 3 and 4 becomes the deciding factor in a tight, one-run game.
Pick: Brewers ML (-132)
Why There’s Still Hope
Playoff baseball is unpredictable. One big swing changes everything. If our offense stays hot and we catch breaks early, we absolutely can win this game.
We’ve shown resilience all season, and this team doesn’t quit. Win or lose, I’m proud of how we battled back from that 0-2 hole.
But if I’m being honest with myself and looking at the matchup objectively, Milwaukee has the edge playing at home with a fresher bullpen. Sometimes you have to call it how you see it, even when it hurts.
Go Cubs Go – let’s prove the doubters wrong one more time.
The post Cubs vs. Brewers Game 5 Prediction Today October 11: Winner-Take-All NLDS Showdown appeared first on UrbanMatter.
