Pittsburgh Pirates (74-74) at Chicago Cubs (82-66) | Saturday, September 12, 2026 | 1:20 PM CT | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Friday’s 12-2 blowout was fun, but it’s not why I’m excited about today’s game. This one’s about Paul Skenes, and specifically about something that doesn’t get talked about nearly enough outside Chicago: the best pitcher in baseball has a genuine, documented problem with the Chicago Cubs. As a Cubs fan, I’m not going to pretend I fully understand why — his stuff is elite against literally everyone else — but the numbers are the numbers, and today Clay Holmes gets to test whether that pattern holds one more time.
Here’s my real breakdown of today’s matchup at Wrigley — the tactical stuff underneath the record, not just who’s favored.
Game Info: Pirates at Cubs
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- First Pitch: 2:20 PM ET
- Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
- TV: MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Network
- Series: Cubs lead 1-0 after Friday’s 12-2 win
The Skenes-Cubs Problem, By the Numbers
Let’s start with the headline stat, because it’s a genuinely strange one for a pitcher of his caliber: in two starts against Chicago this season, Skenes is 0-2 with six earned runs allowed across 10.2 innings — a number that looks nothing like the pitcher who’s racked up 181 strikeouts in 155 innings against the rest of the league. Zoom out further and the concern gets bigger than just this matchup. Over his last 15 starts overall, Skenes is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA — a real step down from the version of him that made him a Cy Young frontrunner earlier this year.
This isn’t a small sample fluke I’m cherry-picking as a fan looking for reasons to feel good. His fielding-independent numbers (a 3.08 FIP against a 3.83 ERA) suggest the underlying stuff is still elite, which is exactly why oddsmakers keep pricing him as if today’s the day he snaps out of it. I get the logic. I just don’t think today, on the road, on a short week, against a lineup that’s already touched him up twice, is the likeliest spot for that turnaround to happen.
Holmes: Good Enough ERA, Interesting Peripherals
Clay Holmes brings a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into today’s start, and on the surface that reads as the better pitcher in this matchup by a full run. Dig one level deeper and it’s more complicated — 65 strikeouts against 30 walks in 86 innings is a modest 6.80 K/9, nowhere near Skenes’ strikeout ability. Holmes has succeeded by limiting hard contact and pitching to contact effectively rather than missing bats, which is a real and repeatable skill, but it’s also the kind of profile that can get exposed if Pittsburgh’s lineup starts squaring him up early.
The Bullpen Math That Could Decide This Game
Here’s the part that doesn’t show up in either pitcher’s ERA: Pittsburgh is walking into today without Braxton Ashcraft, their 14-win workhorse, who’s on the injured list with an arm issue. That puts real strain on a Pirates bullpen that already threw eight innings covering the mess in Friday’s blowout. If Skenes can’t work deep into today’s game — and his recent pitch counts suggest that’s a real question — Pittsburgh’s relief corps is operating on fumes at exactly the wrong time.
Chicago’s situation is a little different but still worth watching. Dansby Swanson remains out with a side injury, which has quietly forced more offensive responsibility onto Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman all September. The good news for Cubs fans: Crow-Armstrong is fully healthy and leading off today, coming off a September where he and Bregman have essentially carried this lineup by themselves. That’s not a small thing given how thin the middle of Chicago’s order has been without Swanson.
The Numbers Behind Today’s Line
Books have Chicago as modest home favorites, generally in the -126 to -128 range, with Pittsburgh sitting around +104 to +113 as the road underdog and the total posted around 9. That’s a notably tighter number than you’d expect given Skenes’ specific track record against this team — which tells me the market is pricing his overall talent level rather than his actual results against Chicago, a gap that’s exactly the kind of thing worth knowing about before you assume this line reflects everything relevant.
My Take: What Actually Decides Today
I think this comes down to the first three innings. If Skenes falls into the same early trouble he’s had against Chicago twice already this year, Pittsburgh’s already-thin bullpen has no cushion left to bail him out. If he settles in and pitches like the Cy Young candidate he’s been against everyone not wearing a Cubs uniform, this becomes a genuine pitcher’s duel that could go either way late.
As a Cubs fan, I trust the pattern until it stops being a pattern. Give me Chicago backing up Friday’s blowout with a tighter, more competitive win today — but a win nonetheless.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Probable pitchers and injury statuses are subject to change ahead of first pitch — always confirm the latest lineups before placing any wagers. This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only.
The post Cubs vs. Pirates September 12th: Paul Skenes Has a Real Wrigley Problem, and I’m Not Sure Today Changes That appeared first on UrbanMatter.
