New York Jets at Chicago Bears | Sunday, October 4, 2026 | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL | FOX (Tim Brando, Drew Brees)
Three games into the season, and the Bears are about to start their third different quarterback. If you’d told me that in August, I’d have assumed we were sitting at 0-3 and starting over. Instead, we’re coming off a 27-7 demolition of the Eagles on Monday Night Football, and the guy who authored that win — Case Keenum, 247 yards, two touchdowns, zero picks — isn’t even starting this week. Tyson Bagent is.
I have thoughts on that decision. Let’s get into it, along with everything else that matters for Sunday’s game against a Jets team that’s better than its record suggests.
Game Info: Jets at Bears
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- TV: FOX (Tim Brando, Drew Brees, Kristina Pink)
- Odds: Bears favored by roughly 3.5 points; total around 43
Why Bagent, Not Keenum, Is Starting
I understand the confusion here, and honestly, so do a lot of Bears fans. Case Keenum just led this team to one of its best wins of the season, completing 24 of 34 passes with zero turnovers against a quality Eagles defense. By any traditional “hot hand” logic, he should be starting again. Instead, Tyson Bagent — who cleared concussion protocol after his Week 2 injury — is getting the ball, and Ben Johnson’s explanation essentially comes down to practice reps and a plan that predates this specific matchup: “There was a reason” Bagent won the backup job in camp, and this week he got the bulk of the first-team snaps while Keenum did the same the week before during Bagent’s concussion recovery.
Caleb Williams remains out with the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 2 against Minnesota, so this is now a third different starting quarterback in four games for Chicago. If the Bears pull this off, they’d be sitting at 3-1 for the first time since 2020, which would be a genuinely remarkable feat of roster management and quarterback-room depth regardless of who’s actually throwing the ball.
The Jets Are Not the Team Their Record Says They Are
I want to push back on any Bears fan who looks at New York’s 1-2 record and assumes an easy afternoon. This Jets team has a point differential of +10 on the season — an enormous swing from last year’s minus-203 — and that tells you Aaron Glenn’s defensive rebuild is real. Their one loss that actually stings was a 31-24 defeat to Detroit where they were competitive into the fourth quarter.
The biggest change for New York, and one that’s easy to miss if you’re not paying close attention: Geno Smith is their quarterback now, not Justin Fields. The Jets traded for Smith from the Raiders in the offseason after Fields’ rough 2025 season, and Smith has been genuinely sharp — 321 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s loss. He’s not walking into Soldier Field as a game-manager; he’s capable of putting points on the board in a hurry if Chicago’s defense isn’t disciplined in coverage.
Breece Hall Being Out Changes Everything About This Game Plan
Here’s the injury that matters most: Jets running back Breece Hall is ruled out with a quad injury. Hall is the engine of New York’s offense when healthy, and his absence forces the Jets into a much more pass-heavy approach built around Geno Smith, Garrett Wilson, and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq, who’s questionable himself with a back issue after a breakout 105-yard, one-touchdown game against Detroit.
New York is also missing wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (finger), guard Dylan Parham (knee), tight end Mason Taylor (hand), and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa (quad). That’s a lot of attrition across both lines of scrimmage and the receiving corps. The one piece of good injury news for New York: star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has a real chance to play after being a full practice participant, which would be a significant boost to a Jets defense that’s quietly been playing well.
For Chicago, this is the exact kind of game where a strong rushing attack behind D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai should be the priority no matter who’s at quarterback. Hall being out removes New York’s own ground-game identity, and if Bagent can avoid asking too much of himself through the air, Chicago’s run game against a Jets front missing a starting guard is the path to victory.
What Actually Decides This Game
Three things I’m watching: how Bagent manages the offense in his first start of the season (not just avoiding mistakes, but actually pushing the ball down the field when matchups are there), whether Chicago’s defense can contain Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson without Breece Hall drawing extra attention in the run game, and whether Fitzpatrick’s potential return gives New York’s defense enough juice to make this closer than the line suggests.
This Bears team has found a way to win with two different backup quarterbacks already this season, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence — it’s a product of a strong run game, a defense that’s bent but rarely broken, and a coaching staff that’s clearly building a system that doesn’t live or die with one player under center. I like Chicago’s chances to make it three different winning starters in a row.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, New York Jets 17
Let´s go Bears!
The post Bears vs. Jets Prediction Game October 4th: A Third Different Starting Quarterback in Four Games, and I’m Still Optimistic appeared first on UrbanMatter.
