ALDS Game 3 | Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Sox lead series 2-0) | Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | 3:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM ET | Rate Field, Chicago | TBS, truTV, HBO Max
Three straight 100-loss seasons. Now this. The White Sox are 4-0 in the postseason, they lead the best-of-five ALDS 2-0, and tonight, or really this afternoon, they can punch their first ticket to the ALCS since 2005 in front of a sold-out South Side crowd. I’m trying to stay calm. I’m failing.
I picked Cleveland to win Game 1 and I missed. I picked the Sox 4-3 in Game 2 and that’s exactly how it ended. So take my predictions for what they are: a fan with a notebook. Let’s get into what actually matters this afternoon.
Game 3 Info: Guardians at White Sox
- Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026
- First pitch: 3:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rate Field, Chicago (sold out)
- TV: TBS, truTV, HBO Max (Spanish: UniMás)
- Series: White Sox lead best-of-five ALDS 2-0; a win sends Chicago to the ALCS
- Probable pitchers: Sean Newcomb (White Sox, LHP, expected opener) vs. Daniel Espino (Guardians, RHP, opener)
- Odds: White Sox around -120, Guardians around +100, total around 8 (lines have moved a little between books)
Both Teams Are Using an Opener, So Forget the Starting Pitchers
This game is going to be decided by bullpens, so don’t spend much time on the starting matchup. Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt confirmed that Daniel Espino starts, but wouldn’t say how long he’ll go: “We don’t know what we’re going to do after Daniel. We’ll have to let the game play out.” Likely followers include Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee and lefty Foster Griffin.
Espino’s story is a great one. The 25-year-old missed most of four seasons after two right shoulder surgeries, debuted in the majors on June 17, 2026, and has already thrown scoreless baseball in this series. He has a 4.11 ERA with big strikeout numbers but has never gone beyond two innings in the regular season, per one betting preview. That’s how short this leash is.
The Sox are doing their own version of this. Sean Newcomb is a lefty with a 3.09 ERA on the year, and he has a 2.61 ERA across nine games against Cleveland this season. He threw scoreless innings in relief in Game 2. One caveat I’d flag: he had an 8.76 ERA across 12⅓ innings in September, so this isn’t a lock-down arm.
Why the White Sox Bullpen Is the Story of October
Chicago has allowed seven earned runs across four postseason games. That’s the number I keep coming back to. Sean Burke gave the Sox 5⅓ innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts in Game 2, and Grant Taylor closed it out with 1⅓ innings for the save. With an opener, a bulk arm and a closer all doing their jobs, the Sox have a pitching plan that is working against a lineup that hasn’t solved it.
Cleveland has managed three runs on seven hits through two games, including just two extra-base hits. Jo Adell struck out four times in Game 1. If the Guardians can’t get their power bats going now, against an opener-heavy staff, I don’t see a path that isn’t a bullpen implosion.
Game 2 Showed This Lineup Can Win Ugly
The Sox fell behind early for the first time all postseason, giving up two runs in the first inning, after 27 postseason innings without ever trailing. Then they won anyway. In the sixth, Miguel Vargas singled, a wild pitch moved the runners, and rookie Braden Montgomery lined an opposite-field, two-run double down the right-field line. Chase Meidroth followed with an RBI single to make it 4-2.
That matters because it shows the lineup can win without needing a monster night from one player. The projected lineup against a right-hander is Antonacci, Teel, Vargas, Murakami, Benintendi, Meidroth, Peters, Braden Montgomery and Colson Montgomery, per MLB.com’s lineup preview. Lineups can change right up until first pitch, so check the official card. I’m happy with that order against a right-handed opener.
The Health Check
Neither team has a significant injury reported going into Game 3. That’s rare for October, and it takes the usual “who’s missing” angle off the table. The story here is about who’s available out of the bullpen after the off day, and both managers should have fresh options.
What Cleveland Needs, and Why I Still Respect Them
I’m not writing them off. This is an elimination game, they’re at 85-77 for the regular season, and the Guardians’ bullpen is one of the best units in the series, with Cade Smith as the closer. Reverse line movement also tells me the market isn’t fully sold on the Sox: one preview noted that although the vast majority of bets were on Chicago, the number drifted toward Cleveland. Sharp money is usually worth noticing.
But Cleveland’s postseason record since the 2016 World Series loss is 2-7 in series play, and this team just spent two games looking like it didn’t have the offense to catch up. A walk-heavy bullpen game is a different story if the Sox grind out at-bats early.
What Actually Decides Game 3
Three things. First, whether Cleveland’s first two or three relievers can hold the Sox in the first five innings, because the Sox bullpen is better built to protect a small lead. Second, whether Murakami and Vargas stay hot. Both struggled against Houston and have been much better in this series. Third, whether Chicago’s lineup can force walks against a bullpen game full of walk-heavy pitcher profiles.
My nerves say this will be a one-run game. My head says the Sox have won four straight playoff games in a row because their bullpen has been better than everyone else’s, and that doesn’t flip overnight.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 4, Cleveland Guardians 3 (White Sox win the series 3-0 and advance to the ALCS)
The post White Sox vs. Guardians Game Prediction October 7th: One Win From the ALCS, and It’s a Bullpen Game for Both Teams appeared first on UrbanMatter.
