Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning | Thursday, November 5, 2026 | 6:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM ET | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa | CHSN (Chicago), WXPX (Tampa)
A heads-up first: this one is in Tampa, so the Lightning are the home team. The arena is listed as Benchmark International Arena in the sources I checked, which is the building Hawks fans know as Amalie Arena.
I picked the Panthers to beat us on Wednesday, 4-2. Florida did win, since Chicago’s record went from 4-10-1 to 4-11-1, so I had the winner. I couldn’t find a reliable final score, so I won’t grade the margin. Add Monday’s 5-2 loss to Colorado and the Hawks are on a four-game losing streak. It’s a hard stretch to defend, and tonight is the back half of a back-to-back against one of the East’s better teams.
Game Info: Blackhawks at Lightning
- Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
- Puck drop: 6:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM ET, per Fubo. That page says it is partly AI-generated, and theScore’s page shows a UTC-style Nov. 6 date, so check the time before you plan around it
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
- TV: CHSN in Chicago and WXPX in Tampa. ESPN+ and SN+ (Canada) appear on theScore’s page
- Records: Blackhawks 4-11-1 (9 points, last 10: 3-6-1, L4); Lightning 9-3-2 (20 points, last 10: 6-2-2)
- Odds: Doc’s Sports listed Tampa Bay at -350 and Chicago at +315, with a total of 6.5. A -350 price implies roughly 78% for the Lightning
- Last meeting: Tampa Bay won 2-1 on Jan. 23, 2026
The Hawks: Back-to-Back, Backup Goalie
The numbers haven’t changed much, and they aren’t good. Chicago is 31st in goals per game (2.2), 31st in shots per game (23), 32nd in power play (10.6%) and 31st in goals against (3.87), per theScore. Against Colorado on Monday, the Hawks scored on 2 of 23 shots and went 0-for-4 on the power play, per Doc’s Sports.
- Goalie: This is the key question. Spencer Knight was projected to start Wednesday in Florida (I couldn’t confirm he played), and both theScore and Doc’s Sports list Arvid Soderblom for Thursday. Fubo lists Knight (4-9-0, 3.34 GAA), so nothing is confirmed. If it’s Soderblom, he’s 0-2-1 with a 4.67 GAA and .829 save percentage this season, per theScore.
- Injuries: Patrick Kane (upper body) was expected back around Nov. 12 and Bowen Byram (upper body, IR) around Nov. 7, per Inside the Rink’s Wednesday preview. I didn’t find a Tampa-specific injury report.
- Bedard: He drives the Hawks’ possession numbers, per the same preview, and he’s the one line I trust to create chances.
- Special teams: The penalty kill is 79.6%, middle of the league. The power play is where this season is stuck.
The Lightning: Deep, Productive and Rolling
Tampa is 9-3-2 and third in the Atlantic. It scores 3.71 goals a game (fourth), shoots 29.9 a night (sixth) and holds opponents to 24.6 shots (fifth). The Lightning beat Detroit 4-2 on Tuesday: Brayden Point had a power-play goal and an even-strength goal, Anthony Cirelli scored his fifth, Ryan McDonagh added an empty-netter and Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 21, per 32 Hockey Updates.
- Goalie: Vasilevskiy (7-3-1, 2.91 GAA, .879) is listed to start. The save percentage is below his usual standard, but he still gets better goal support than Chicago’s goalies will ever see.
- Power play: Tampa’s is only 16.3% (28th), which is the one soft spot. The penalty kill is 76.9%.
- Injuries: None listed in the sources I found.
The Matchups That Matter
Soderblom against Tampa’s volume. The Lightning are fourth in scoring and Chicago allows 30.3 shots a game. A backup with a .829 save percentage against that is a rough draw.
Chicago’s shot count. At 23 shots a night, the Hawks don’t test anyone. Vasilevskiy’s numbers are down this year, but he can’t struggle if he doesn’t face rubber.
Point and Cirelli against our back end. Tampa’s top forwards had a good night against Detroit. Chicago’s defense, even with Vlasic and Cole as the top pair, hasn’t been able to slow top lines.
Special teams. Tampa’s power play is poor and ours is worse. If either team scores on it, that probably decides a tight game.
Fatigue. The Hawks played in Florida last night and have to turn around for Tampa. Tampa played Tuesday and has had an extra day.
What Actually Decides It
The market has Tampa at about 78%, and for once I don’t have a counter-argument. Chicago is on a four-game skid, plays on consecutive nights and likely turns to a backup goalie with a .829 save percentage. Doc’s Sports takes Chicago at +315 as a value play, and I understand the logic, but its own page says every stat points the other way.
The route to an upset is simple and unlikely: Bedard scores, Chicago draws a power play that works, and Soderblom steals one. I’m not betting on it. I expect Tampa to score early and the Hawks to push late without catching up.
My Honest Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
The post Prediction Blackhawks vs. Lightning November 5th: A Back-to-Back in Tampa With a Four-Game Skid and Vasilevskiy Waiting appeared first on UrbanMatter.
