The Chicago Bears (0-2) host the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) Sunday afternoon in what feels like a must-win situation for both teams. With kickoff set for 4:25 p.m. ET at Soldier Field, this Week 3 matchup could define early-season momentum for both franchises.
Game Information
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET / 3:25 p.m. CT
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
TV Coverage: FOX
Betting Lines: Cowboys -1, Bears +1
Total Points: 50 (Over/Under)
Moneyline: Cowboys -115, Bears -105
Why the Bears Can Win at Home
Bounce-Back Historical Trends
Teams coming off losses of 30+ points historically perform well the following week, going 149-121-10 against the spread. After Chicago’s devastating 31-point loss to Detroit last week, this statistical trend suggests the Bears could be primed for a strong response.
Coaching Advantages
The Bears appear to have coaching advantages in key matchups. While Dallas brings experience, Chicago’s staff should be motivated facing one of their former head coaches. Home field advantage at Soldier Field, especially with potential weather concerns, could level the playing field.
Cowboys’ Defensive Struggles
Dallas has shown significant defensive vulnerabilities early this season. Their secondary concerns are well-documented, with key injuries potentially limiting their coverage ability. For a Bears offense looking to establish identity, this presents opportunities.
Areas of Concern for Chicago
Secondary Injuries
The Bears face their own defensive challenges, particularly in the secondary. With Jalen Johnson out and Kyler Gordon week-to-week, Chicago’s defense ranks poorly in pressure rate (29th) and blitz rate (31st). This creates potential mismatches against Dallas’s receiving corps.
Kicking Game Disparity
The special teams battle heavily favors Dallas. Brandon Aubrey’s range extends well beyond 60 yards, while Cairo Santos typically maxes out around 40 yards. In a close game, this could prove decisive.
Cowboys’ Strengths and Weaknesses
Offensive Weapons
Dallas brings legitimate playmakers who can exploit Chicago’s defensive injuries. Their receiving corps has the talent to create problems for an already-thin Bears secondary.
Road Favorite Questions
The Cowboys earned their 1-1 record with an overtime road win against the Giants that could have easily gone the other way. Playing as road favorites presents challenges, especially against a desperate home team.
Weather and Game Flow Factors
Potential weather concerns in Chicago could impact both teams’ passing games. This might favor the team that can establish a ground game and control field position, potentially benefiting the home Bears.
Betting Market Analysis
The betting public shows interesting splits:
44% of bets but 80% of money on Cowboys spread
75% of bets and 88% of money on Cowboys moneyline
80% of bets and 69% of money on the under
This suggests sharp money favors Dallas while casual bettors are more divided.
Key Matchups to Watch
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Chicago’s struggling offense faces a Dallas defense that’s shown vulnerabilities. The Bears need to establish rhythm early and take advantage of any coverage breakdowns.
Red Zone Efficiency
With the kicking game disparity, reaching the end zone becomes crucial for Chicago. Field goal attempts from distance heavily favor Dallas.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Bears 24, Cowboys 21
Best Bet: Bears Moneyline (-105)
This feels like a spot where a desperate home team finds ways to win. The Bears’ bounce-back historical trends, combined with Dallas’s road favorite status and defensive concerns, create value on Chicago.
While the Cowboys have more talent on paper, the Bears should be motivated after last week’s embarrassment. Home field advantage, potential weather factors, and the historical trends for teams coming off blowout losses all point toward Chicago finding a way.
The game projects to be closer than many expect, making the Bears’ moneyline at essentially pick ’em odds an attractive proposition. Sometimes teams facing adversity respond better than expected, and Soldier Field could provide the atmosphere needed for that type of performance.
Let´s go Bears!!!
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