Chicago Cubs (79-62) at Miami Marlins (71-69) | September 4-6, 2026 | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Every Cubs-Marlins series at loanDepot Park comes with its own weird little history, and this one’s got a genuinely good subplot: Owen Caissie is back. If that name doesn’t ring a bell, he’s the outfielder Chicago shipped to Miami back in January as the headliner of the Edward Cabrera trade — and yes, the same Cabrera who’s now anchoring a chunk of Chicago’s rotation. Caissie’s already taken a not-so-subtle jab at his old organization this year, saying the Marlins “really pride themselves on the compete aspect” in a way he didn’t always feel in Chicago. As a Cubs fan, I’ve got some thoughts about that, and I’ll get to them. First, let’s talk about what actually matters this weekend: Chicago is riding the best offense in baseball into a Miami pitching staff that’s genuinely better than its record suggests.
Here’s my full breakdown of all three games in Miami — pitching matchups, odds, the numbers that matter, and my honest predictions.
Series Snapshot: What’s at Stake
- Dates: Friday, September 4 through Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Venue: loanDepot Park, Miami, Florida
- Records entering the series: Cubs 79-62; Marlins 71-69
- Cubs’ history at loanDepot Park: 56-59 all-time, 20-23 at the current ballpark specifically — a genuinely mixed bag that includes a sweep in 2019, a sweep the other way in 2023, and split series in between
Chicago leads all of Major League Baseball in scoring at 5.4 runs per game, and that’s the headline going into this series. But don’t sleep on Miami’s pitching staff — a 3.93 team ERA and a 4.05 FIP that’s actually better than Chicago’s own 4.71 FIP. This is a series where the Cubs’ obvious strength runs directly into the Marlins’ most underrated one.
Game 1: Friday, September 4 at 7:10 PM ET
Probable Pitchers: Shota Imanaga (CHC, 8-10, 4.01 ERA) vs. Janson Junk (MIA, 6-8, 4.11 ERA)
Imanaga’s season ERA has crept up, but his career numbers against the league — a 3.52 ERA and 1.051 WHIP — are the better signal for how he actually pitches when he’s right. Junk has been a fine back-of-rotation piece for Miami but doesn’t miss a ton of bats.
My Take: I like Chicago here. Imanaga is the better arm on paper, and this Cubs lineup traveling well is the story of the whole road trip.
Game 2: Saturday, September 5 at 4:10 PM ET
Probable Pitchers: Clay Holmes (CHC, 6-6, 2.09 ERA overall; 2-2, 1.55 ERA in five starts since joining the Cubs) vs. Ryan Gusto (MIA, 1-3, 3.86 ERA)
This is the matchup I’m most excited about as a Cubs fan. Holmes has allowed exactly one earned run over his last four starts in Chicago, averaging just over six innings a night. That’s not a hot streak — that’s a guy who looks like the best pitcher on this staff right now, full stop.
My Take: Give me Chicago in a rout. Holmes against a Gusto who’s still finding his footing is about as favorable a matchup as this rotation will get all September.
Game 3: Sunday, September 6 at 1:40 PM ET
Probable Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (CHC, 8-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. Tyler Phillips (MIA, 4-6, 3.43 ERA)
Boyd had a rough middle stretch of the summer before back-to-back solid outings against Arizona and Milwaukee settled him back down. I wouldn’t call him fully locked in yet, but the trend is pointing the right way. Phillips has quietly been effective for Miami, and his ERA is actually better than his record shows.
My Take: This is the toughest call of the series. I think Boyd’s recent improvement holds, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way.
The Owen Caissie Storyline: My Honest Take
Here’s my hot take, and I’ll own it: Caissie’s dig at the Cubs stings a little less once you remember why he’s not still here. He hit .192 in his cup of coffee with Chicago and struggled to make consistent contact, and the front office decided Edward Cabrera — a real, immediate-impact starter — was worth more to a team trying to win right now than a 23-year-old outfielder still working through a 28% strikeout rate. Caissie’s had his moments in Miami, including a walk-off homer back in March, and I genuinely hope he has a nice career. But “the Marlins compete harder” is an easy thing to say about a rebuilding club with lower expectations. Ask him again in October when Chicago’s playing meaningful baseball and Miami’s watching from home.
Betting Snapshot: Series Opener
- Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -152 / Miami Marlins +128 (approximate, Friday’s opener)
- Chicago’s edge: MLB’s top scoring offense, a .990 team fielding percentage (first in baseball), and a 71.8% conversion rate on balls in play (third in MLB)
- Miami’s edge: Better team ERA (3.93 vs. Chicago’s 4.18), better FIP, and a bullpen that’s quietly been effective all year
The number makes sense given the overall talent gap, but Miami’s specific strength — limiting damage on the mound — is exactly the kind of thing that keeps a series from turning into a laugher. This is closer than a -152 favorite might suggest on paper.
What a Series Win Actually Means Right Now
Chicago’s still chasing Milwaukee in the NL Central after getting taken down two of three at Wrigley this week, but the Wild Card cushion remains healthy. Taking care of business against a sub-.500 NL East club is exactly the kind of series a team with real October aspirations needs to handle before facing tougher competition later in the month. Miami, for its part, is playing out a season with no real path to the postseason, but that hasn’t stopped this pitching staff from being a genuine problem for good lineups all year.
My Final Predictions
- Game 1 (Fri): Cubs win — Imanaga’s track record against this league wins out.
- Game 2 (Sat): Cubs win big — Clay Holmes has been the best story on this staff for a month, and Gusto isn’t ready to slow him down.
- Game 3 (Sun): Toss-up, but I’ll lean Cubs based on Boyd’s recent uptick.
Series Prediction: Chicago Cubs sweep, 3-0.
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