Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Week 5 | Sunday, October 11, 2026 | 12:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM ET | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin | FOX (Kenny Albert, Greg Olsen)
The Bears are 3-1. Think about that for a second, because we are 3-1 with two backup quarterbacks starting three of the four games, and the last two wins came by double digits. I would not have believed it in August. Now we get Green Bay, at Lambeau, with the Packers lining up for a chance to beat Ben Johnson, a coach who has made no secret of how he feels about this rivalry.
Back in January, the Bears erased a 21-3 halftime deficit to beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild-card round and earned the franchise’s first playoff win in 15 years. Packers fans haven’t forgotten. Neither have I. Here’s how I see Sunday.
Game Info: Bears at Packers
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- TV: FOX (Kenny Albert, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver); NFL Sunday Ticket out of market
- Radio: Packers Radio Network; international viewers can watch on Sky Sports and NFL Game Pass
- Records: Bears 3-1; Packers 2-2
- Weather: Roughly 70 degrees, southwest wind around 12 mph, little chance of rain
- Odds: Bears favored by 1.5 to 3 points depending on the book; the total is 45.5; moneylines are roughly Bears -129 to -148
The Quarterback Situation
Caleb Williams is listed as questionable with the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 2. On Friday he got his first limited practice since the injury, but multiple outlets expect Tyson Bagent to start again. Ben Johnson would only say, “Our guys have a good plan in place and we’re just going step by step.” Inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff, so check before you lock anything in.
Bagent’s Week 4 line against the Jets was 25-of-34 for 268 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. I’ll be honest about how it looked: it was fine, and it was lucky. Three other interceptions were wiped out by penalties. That is not a recipe that works every week, and a Green Bay defense that forced two interceptions and a fumble last week will take those chances. I’ll get to why I’m still optimistic.
The Run Game Is the Bears’ Whole Identity Right Now
Chicago had the NFL’s top rushing offense going into the week. Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets and was starting to look like the lead back, with 324 rushing yards on the season. Now he’s out with toe and thumb injuries (the toe is in a walking boot, and the team doesn’t expect more than a two- or three-week absence).
D’Andre Swift came off the injury report after a full Friday practice. He has 311 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season, but he has also lost two fumbles, including one against New York that led directly to Jets points. Roschon Johnson, and possibly Salvon Ahmed, will fill in behind him. Ball security is the line between a comfortable win and a Packers comeback.
The Bears’ Defense Deserves More Attention
Dennis Allen’s group got three sacks, seven quarterback hits and four tackles for loss against New York, holding Geno Smith to a 101.8 rating. The Bears have given up 42 points in their last 18 quarters. According to one pre-game breakdown, Chicago ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate and first in hurry percentage.
On the injury side, Kyler Gordon, Shemar Turner and Noah Sewell are all questionable after returning to full practice from the PUP list, and Johnson said it’s “highly likely” one of them gets activated this week. Linebacker Keyshaun Elliott is out. I’d be careful with one preview that listed Gordon as inactive; the team’s own Friday report had him questionable.
The Packers: Banged Up and Their Own Worst Enemy
Green Bay beat Tampa Bay 17-14 last week. Jordan Love threw two touchdown passes, to Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft, and the defense had two interceptions and a forced fumble against a rookie quarterback. LaFleur said the offense scored below standard and the Packers still need to clean up their play.
Here’s what I like for Chicago:
- Love takes a beating. He was sacked or hit 31 times in the first three games, then only twice last week. Chicago’s pass rush is a different animal than Tampa’s.
- Self-inflicted errors. One analysis has the Packers leading the NFL in drops and fumbles and second in penalties.
- Offensive line chaos. Green Bay was missing three starters on the line last week. Guards Aaron Banks (knee/toe) and Jacob Monk (quad) are doubtful, and Jager Burton is questionable. Laken Tomlinson and Travis Glover filled in last week, and Kevin Zeitler is an option at right guard.
- Defensive injuries. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (who had an interception last week) suffered an Achilles injury and was carted off, and Micah Parsons is still recovering from ACL surgery. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (toe) is questionable.
Running back Chris Brooks is out, so Pierre Strong Jr. gets a bigger role on third downs.
The Matchups I’m Watching
Bears’ pass rush vs. Green Bay’s makeshift line. This is the matchup of the game. If the Packers can’t keep Love upright, the offense stalls.
Bagent vs. Green Bay’s secondary. The Bears have been smart about shortening the field with the run. The Packers have to take away the short game and force Bagent to throw into traffic.
Swift and fumbles. The Packers’ strength is takeaways. They don’t need many.
Special teams and field position. In a game with a spread of three points or fewer, one return decides it.
What Actually Decides Sunday
If the Bears win the turnover battle and get the rushing attack going behind Swift, the Packers’ injury-ravaged lines get tired. If Bagent makes a couple of risky throws and Swift loses the ball, Lambeau gets loud and we’re in trouble. A defense that has allowed 42 points over its last 18 quarters is my reason for optimism.
I’m picking the Bears to win a physical, ugly game. The betting market is nearly even on the spread, which tells me nobody trusts Bagent on the road. I do, a little, because the run game and the pass rush travel.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 20
Let´s Go Bears!
The post Bears vs. Packers Prediction October 11th: Bagent Walks Into Lambeau With the Best Running Game in the League and a Backup’s Margin for Error appeared first on UrbanMatter.
