New York City FC at Chicago Fire FC | Saturday, October 10, 2026 | 1:30 PM CT / 2:30 PM ET | Soldier Field, Chicago | Apple TV
Here is the uncomfortable truth about this match: NYCFC has not lost to the Fire in the regular season since September 2021. That’s 10 straight (seven wins, three draws), and the most recent meeting was a 3-1 NYCFC win at Yankee Stadium on July 25. Gregg Berhalter said afterward the team was unhappy with how it conceded.
But this isn’t July. The Fire just beat Vancouver 3-1 at home, I picked a 2-2 draw, and I’m very happy to have been wrong. Chicago is fourth in the Eastern Conference with a real shot to move up, and NYCFC walks in on a long winless run. Let’s go through it.
Match Info: NYCFC at Fire
- Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:30 PM CT / 2:30 PM ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago
- Broadcast: Apple TV (Sacha Kljestan is on the English call)
- Standings: Fire 4th in the East (13W-6D-8L, 45 points); NYCFC 9th (8W-9D-10L, 33 points)
- Odds: Fire around -125, a draw around +290, NYCFC around +320 (one sportsbook); a statistical model (published before Tuesday’s win, so it may underrate Chicago a bit) gives Chicago 52%, a draw 22% and NYCFC 26%
Why the Vancouver Win Matters Beyond Three Points
Jonathan Bamba opened the scoring in the 9th minute with a shot from the top of the box, his first goal since March 21. Philip Zinckernagel doubled the lead early in the second half after a give-and-go with Maren Haile-Selassie, his first goal since May and one that came after a missed first-half penalty. Vancouver pulled one back on a Mathias Laborda header from a corner, and Haile-Selassie sealed it in the 88th, set up by Robert Lewandowski’s pass at the back post.
The underlying numbers were strong: 21 shots to 14, and 8 shots on target to 2. It was one of the more complete performances I’ve seen from the Fire this year. Lewandowski, who returned early from Poland duty after a yellow-card suspension, now has six goals and three assists in 12 MLS appearances.
The result moved Chicago past Charlotte into fourth. The Fire are one point behind both Inter Miami and the New England Revolution, who are tied for second, with Nashville out front at 60 points. The top four get a home playoff game, so every point matters.
Who’s Available for Chicago
- Andre Franco is recovering from surgery to repair a torn right ACL.
- Robin Lod is sidelined with an injury picked up on international duty with Finland.
- Chris Brady is expected to return in goal after missing the last two wins with the U.S. national team, per the club’s broadcast preview. Cohen played Tuesday, so check the lineup.
- Noah Allen is available and Anzor Mekvabishvili may be in the matchday squad.
No Fire suspensions have been reported. Berhalter still has to settle on his best back four before the playoffs, according to Kljestan, and that includes how Jack Elliott and Mbekezeli Mbokazi fit with the fullbacks.
NYCFC: Dangerous but Depleted
NYCFC is winless since a 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake on September 12, with a 1-0 loss to the Red Bulls and a 2-2 draw with Atlanta United since then. Against Atlanta they took a lead twice and gave it away twice. Head coach Pascal Jansen’s team is looking to hold a wild-card spot.
The injury list is long. NYCFC’s own site ran a “Seven Absent vs. Chicago” headline, but I couldn’t read the story. One betting preview named goalkeeper Matt Freese, midfielder Aiden O’Neill and defender Tayvon Gray as expected to miss, and Tomas Romero started in goal against Atlanta in place of Freese. Reports on exactly who is out vary, so check the team news before kickoff.
The danger man is Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, who leads NYCFC with 15 goals and eight assists, shares sixth in the Golden Boot race, and takes the penalties. Agustin Ojeda has five goals and 10 assists. Kljestan flagged NYCFC’s fast counterattacks through Fernandez Mercau as the main threat, and the lesson from July is clear: careless turnovers in build-up play will get punished.
The Tactical Matchups
Chicago’s front line vs. NYCFC’s depleted back line. Lewandowski has been taking three or more shots in most of his recent MLS games. Haile-Selassie (nine goals, nine assists, and a new contract extension through 2028-29) and Zinckernagel (six goals, 10 assists) give the Fire good service. Hugo Cuypers leads the team with 13 goals. If NYCFC is missing defenders, the Fire have the quality to take advantage.
Transition defense. Chicago has conceded 39 goals in 27 matches. NYCFC is built to hit on the counter, and in July they scored three. If the Fire’s fullbacks push too high, that happens again.
Set pieces and discipline. Vancouver scored from a corner, and the Fire have been fine otherwise. A low-scoring match is less likely than you’d expect: one preview noted the last four head-to-head meetings produced at least four goals.
What Actually Decides It
If the Fire score first, NYCFC has to chase the game with a thin squad and that changes the entire shape of the match. If NYCFC scores first against the run of play, the ten-game head-to-head streak starts to feel heavy. The match is also a moment for Berhalter: a win keeps Chicago in position to move up the table, while a loss gives back what the Vancouver win earned.
I like the Fire at home. The team is in form, the crowd should be loud and the opponent is short of players. But I’ve learned not to underestimate this particular opponent. I think it’s a goals match, and I’ll go with Chicago by a narrow margin.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago Fire 2, New York City FC 1
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